Novak Djokovic v Daniil Medvedev prediction and odds
Next up in the China Open: Novak Djokovic against Daniil Medvedev. Below you'll find the win chances our ratings give each side.
Our reading
Very little separates the two: Novak Djokovic 49%, Daniil Medvedev 51%. It is a best of 3: the stronger side gets more chances to recover from a bad game, so favourites win series more often than single games. Our model sees the over 2.5 landing 50% of the time.
These probabilities come from our own models (Elo ratings for duels and esports, Poisson goals or normal points distributions for team sports), not from another bookmaker's prices. How we price our odds
Markets and odds
Winner
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | 1.90 | 49% | |
| Daniil Medvedev | 1.84 | 51% |
Handicap (-1.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic -1.5 | 3.83 | 24% | |
| Daniil Medvedev +1.5 | 1.24 | 76% |
Handicap (+1.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic +1.5 | 1.26 | 74% | |
| Daniil Medvedev -1.5 | 3.65 | 26% |
Total (2.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1.87 | 50% | |
| Under 2.5 | 1.87 | 50% |
Correct score
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | 3.65 | 26% | |
| 1-2 | 3.69 | 25% | |
| 2-1 | 3.78 | 25% | |
| 2-0 | 3.83 | 24% |
Recent form
Novak Djokovic
- W2026-10-04 · Alexander Zverev · 2-1
- W2026-10-02 · Bu Yunchaokete · 2-1
- W2026-09-30 · Nuno Borges · 2-0
- L2026-08-30 · Mariano Navone · 2-3
- L2026-08-15 · Thiago Agustin Tirante · 1-2
Daniil Medvedev
- W2026-10-04 · Francisco Cerundolo · 2-0
- W2026-10-03 · Jan-Lennard Struff · 2-0
- W2026-10-02 · Pablo Carreno Busta · 2-0
- W2026-09-29 · Andrey Rublev · 2-0
- W2026-09-28 · Roman Safiullin · 2-0
Recent form: 3 wins from 5 for Novak Djokovic. Daniil Medvedev won 5 of their last 5.
Head to head
This is a fresh pairing: we have no recent head-to-head between Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev.
Odds can move right up to 1 minute before the start, and this preview page is withdrawn once the match is over.