Alex de Minaur v Hubert Hurkacz prediction and odds
Alex de Minaur take on Hubert Hurkacz in the China Open, and here is how our model sees it.
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Our reading
This one is close to a coin flip on our numbers — 54% for Alex de Minaur against 46% for Hubert Hurkacz. It is a best of 3: the stronger side gets more chances to recover from a bad game, so favourites win series more often than single games. Goals or points: the 2.5 line, with a 50% chance of going over on our numbers.
We calculate every price in-house: team or player ratings give the probabilities above, and a margin is then spread proportionally across the outcomes. How we price our odds
Markets and odds
Winner
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur | 1.72 | 54% | |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 2.05 | 46% |
Handicap (-1.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur -1.5 | 3.33 | 28% | |
| Hubert Hurkacz +1.5 | 1.30 | 72% |
Handicap (+1.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur +1.5 | 1.20 | 78% | |
| Hubert Hurkacz -1.5 | 4.22 | 22% |
Total (2.5)
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1.88 | 50% | |
| Under 2.5 | 1.86 | 50% |
Correct score
| Odds | Probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 3.33 | 28% | |
| 2-1 | 3.54 | 26% | |
| 1-2 | 3.99 | 23% | |
| 0-2 | 4.22 | 22% |
Recent form
Alex de Minaur
- W2026-10-04 · Andrey Rublev · 2-1
- W2026-10-03 · Quentin Halys · 2-1
- W2026-10-01 · Mariano Navone · 2-0
- L2026-09-03 · Botic Van De Zandschulp · 0-3
- W2026-09-02 · Andrea Guerrieri · 3-0
Hubert Hurkacz
- W2026-10-04 · Karen Khachanov · 2-0
- W2026-10-02 · Arthur Gea · 2-1
- W2026-10-01 · Learner Tien · 2-1
- L2026-09-29 · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · 0-2
- W2026-09-28 · Denis Shapovalov · 2-1
Alex de Minaur come in with 4 victories in their last 5 outings. Recent form: 4 wins from 5 for Hubert Hurkacz.
Head to head
No recent meeting between Alex de Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz in our records.
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